Good morning! Thanks for starting your day with Winners Club. Today I'm preparing you for NFL and college football bets, and fantasy plays beginning tonight and trickling into Monday. I also did a deep dive on kickers, and just how frustrating they've been. Let's get right into it.
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Thursday Night Football Betting Guide: Jaguars-Bengals isn’t the best primetime game we’ve had this season, so why not place a few bets to make it more exciting? Jennifer Piacenti has picks for the spread, point total and player props. Place your bets over at SI Sportsbook.
Sam Greene via Imagn Content Services, LLC
NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Where is the public putting its money? Frankie Taddeo is following the games that are on the move ahead of the weekend.
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Michael Fabiano picked Justin Herbert as his quarterback Start of the Week a week ago, and the sophomore responded with a season-high in points. See who Fabiano likes this week at quarterback and beyond.
Weekly Player Rankings: Shawn Childs foresees a big week for a pair of Bills players in his weekly projections and rankings. Check out who else Childs is high on.
Composite CFB Picks: Richard Johnson's college football picks model had a bounce back week, and with conference play in full swing, he's confident in another good week ahead as we learn more and more about teams.
College Football Futures: Frankie Taddeo checks in on which teams' odds to win the College Football Playoff are rising and falling. The SEC is on top, and the ACC is virtually out of the picture; see how the rest of the contenders from the Power 5 stack up.
What’s Going on With Kickers?
Week 3 was a highlight reel for kickers with walk-off field goals from Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo, Las Vegas’ Daniel Carlson, Green Bay’s Mason Crosby and Baltimore’s Justin Tucker, who set an NFL record with a 66-yard boot. So what’s going on with kickers as it relates to fantasy football three weeks into the season?
Well, the highest-drafted kickers have largely been disappointments. Of the 12 highest kickers drafted, only five are currently in the top 12 in scoring at the position. Kicker, like defense, can be a fickle position for fantasy.
Top 12 Fantasy Kickers
Tucker, true to form, is the third-best kicker this season and was drafted the highest. I wouldn't call that a disappointment. The next kicker off the board was Harrison Butker of Kansas City. The Chiefs, though 1-2, are still one of the highest-scoring offenses in football. Their 30.7 points per game are fifth-best in the NFL. But Butker has only attempted and made three field goals compared with 11-of-11 extra points, which are worthless for fantasy.
The same goes for Ryan Succop of the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is the second-highest scoring offense, but Succop has only made two of three field goals this season and 13 of 14 extra points. He was the fifth kicker drafted but is tied for 22nd in scoring. Matt Prater, who kicks for Arizona, the NFL's highest-scoring offense, is tied for 11th.
Kickers with Top-12 ADPs not in the Top 12
Being a good fantasy kicker isn’t necessarily directly correlated with your team having a good offense. The offense just needs to be good enough to make it into field goal range but not good enough to always score near the red zone. Take the Patriots’ Nick Folk. New England has the 26th-best scoring offense, but he’s tied for fourth at the position because he’s attempted and made nine field goals.
Picking a kicker can be a crapshoot, and as shown by Jason Sanders and Koo, 2020’s top kickers, the continuity from season to season isn’t super sticky, either. They’re both tied for 23rd at their position. And players like Emmanuel Sanders and Derek Carr went well after each of them. All this to say, in-season adjustments at kicker (and every position) are vital to success. The Buccaneers could go out and score seven touchdowns this Sunday, but if they never attempt a field goal, that’s still only seven points for Succop.
Play of the Day and Games I’m Watching
Play of the Day: Can I interest you in Ja’Marr Chase against the Jaguars' defense? The Joe Burrow to Chase connection has been more than everyone had hoped for, even early after the draft when expectations were high. In the preseason, Chase's stock dropped dramatically after his drops became a huge storyline. Now, all he's done is catch touchdown after touchdown. He's averaging 20 yards per catch, and it's easy to envision him getting behind the Jaguars' secondary and linking up with Burrow. Lock Chase into all of your DFS lineups. I still feel that his price hasn't caught up to his production. He's a bargain.
Games I’m Watching: I don’t know about you, but I love some SEC football, and the game of the week is Saturday at noon ET between No. 8 Arkansas and No. 2 Georgia on ESPN. I don't know many people who could have predicted this would be a top-10 matchup before the season began, but the Razorbacks are legit, and they get another chance to prove their place among the SEC's elite when they travel to Athens to take on the Bulldogs.
I’ll also be watching Boston College at No. 25 Clemson closely on the ACC Network at 7:30 PM ET on Saturday. The Tigers have the second-longest-running streak in the AP Top 25. A loss to a good Eagles team would end that this weekend.
That's all for today. Enjoy your college football Saturday, and I'll talk to you Sunday morning.