SI Fantasy expert Shawn Childs provides a WR3 and WR4 scoring breakdown and projects what point targets to gain an edge.
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Here are the results from the 25th through 36th ranked WR over the last two seasons:
WR 25 to 36 point totals (2018 – 2019)
WR3: Last year, the 25th thru 36th wide receivers averaged 189.86 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 11.87 fantasy points per week, which works out to be 64 catches for 839 yards and 5.9 TDs. The top four wide receivers in this group averaged 198.0 fantasy points.
FFWC Point Totals WR3 Observations
The quality of the WR3 rebounded last year after a sharp decline in 2017 (169.45) and a slight improvement in 2018 (178.53).
Wide receivers can be inconsistent from week-to-week. Many times touchdowns will determine their success. If a fantasy owner builds his team with too many weak wide receivers, he will have a challenging time getting his lineup right on Sunday. As you can see, as we maneuver our way through the wide receiver pool, they consistently outscore the RB position at the backend.
As I mentioned earlier, if a fantasy owner could draft three top WRs inside the first four rounds, you can see that it is possible to gain a five or six-point edge at the WR3 position if you can hit on the right group of wide receivers. By having three reliable wide receivers, your team may be slightly stronger during bye weeks while also have a chance to battle some short-term injuries. A team selecting a quarterback and tight end over the top five rounds will be under pressure to get their 2nd running backs and backend wide receivers right on draft day.
I’ll use a baseball comparison as I think it is easier to understand for fantasy owners that play multiple sports. A backup running back is like a closer in waiting. If they get full-time carries, running backs can turn into a top player and sometimes an elite player. They need the opportunity, but backup running backs tend to have minimal value without a job if needed to cover an injury or bye week.
Wide receivers are more like starting pitchers. It’s either they have talent, or they don’t. Each year a couple of wide receivers will break through, but what are the chances the draft breaks right for you to secure the right ones? If you went running back strong, do you need to hit one or two wide receivers? Maybe you even need three wide receivers to develop a competitive roster.
In the high-end leagues, your opponents will also know the player pool, which will make it tough to get out if you wait too long at the wide receiver position.
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